Trump out as President by June 30?

Prediction markets currently give a 5% probability that Trump out as President by June 30?. This contract trades at 5¢ on Polymarket, closing June 30, 2026.

██░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░
5¢
Bid/Ask 4/5¢·Spread 1¢·Vol $46,606.661·OI $346,945.224·Closes Jun 30, 2026·69d remaining
0xeeb1b35c595b19f9512c55f85fdf93f3625c3cec1a9b6bac6262921fbd87912e
7-day price27 snapshots · 131 regime
7¢5¢ current
Apr 95¢Apr 20

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump resigns or is removed as President or otherwise ceases to be the President of the United States for any period of time by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count. A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 10056.1%
IY (No) 27.9%
Adj IY 4022%
CRI 19
LAS 0.20
▶ Full indicator table (5)
IndicatorValue
IY (Yes)10056.1%
IY (No)27.9%
Adj IY4022%
CRI19
LAS0.20

Regime

Label
neutral
Score
0.409
Spread
1¢
Computed
4/22/2026, 12:53:39 AM
Observability mediumEvent type political
Has orderbookIndicators computed 4/22/2026, 12:53:18 AM

Trade

View on polymarketsf trade 0xeeb1b35c595b19f9512c55f85fdf93f3625c3cec1a9b6bac6262921fbd87912e yes 100

Related concepts

Related Prediction Market Questions