Will Joe Johnson be the Republican nominee for Senate in Oregon?
Prediction markets currently give a 4% probability that Will Joe Johnson be the Republican nominee for Senate in Oregon?. This contract trades at 4¢ on Polymarket, closing May 19, 2026. This market shows extreme illiquidity with only $5 in 24-hour volume against $13.6M open interest, creating a highly unstable pricing environment where the 27,442% implied yield on "Yes" reflects the mathematical artifact of pricing at the floor rather than genuine opportunity.
Analysis
This market shows extreme illiquidity with only $5 in 24-hour volume against $13.6M open interest, creating a highly unstable pricing environment where the 27,442% implied yield on "Yes" reflects the mathematical artifact of pricing at the floor rather than genuine opportunity. The 4¢ price has remained flat over seven days despite 32 days to expiry, suggesting either consensus dismissal of Johnson's candidacy or simply insufficient trading activity to move the needle. The 24 Cliff Risk Index and neutral regime score warrant caution, as thin markets can experience sharp repricing on minimal news flow before the May 2026 primary.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for United States Senator from Oregon. If no 2026 Oregon Republican Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Oregon Republican Party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade 0xef059a03a17572c2080c97f353aed695286bbaf58f333bf3fa14396d58b5081d yes 100