Will Jacob Misiorowski win the 2026 NL Cy Young Award?
Prediction markets currently give a 15% probability that Will Jacob Misiorowski win the 2026 NL Cy Young Award?. This contract trades at 15¢ on Polymarket, closing November 12, 2026. Jacob Misiorowski's Cy Young odds have collapsed dramatically from 16¢ to 3¢ over seven days, suggesting a significant negative development regarding the young pitcher's prospects or health status.
Analysis
Jacob Misiorowski's Cy Young odds have collapsed dramatically from 16¢ to 3¢ over seven days, suggesting a significant negative development regarding the young pitcher's prospects or health status. The 5,628% implied yield on the Yes side reflects extreme mispricing relative to the 3% probability, though the zero 24-hour volume and wide 5¢ spread indicate severe illiquidity that makes this yield largely theoretical. With 210 days to expiration and a Cliff Risk Index of 32, this market appears to be pricing in either injury concerns or a major reassessment of Misiorowski's 2026 Cy Young contention.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to the player who wins the 2026 National League Cy Young Award. In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official winner as determined by MLB rules. If multiple winners are announced then this market will resolve to the player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically. If the 2026 MLB season is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Major League Baseball; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Indicators
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Trade
sf trade 0xefbdaf213a482fcf7d32f78a4a0965f8e41ab8bf2211a3d0a2d72ee33b894aaf yes 100