Will the Republican Party win the NY-19 House seat?

This NY-19 market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume despite $1.3M open interest, suggesting the $1,345 spread reflects stale pricing rather than active trading. The 499% implied yield on the Yes side is extraordinarily high and likely unsustainable, indicating either severe mispricing or that the market lacks sufficient depth to execute meaningful positions. With realized volatility at 2,368% and a vol ratio of 7.99, this appears to be a thin, volatile market where the 27¢ price should be treated with significant caution until liquidity improves closer to the November 2026 expiration.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-19 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

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