Will the Democratic Party win the GA-10 House seat?

This market shows extreme asymmetry with a 1,338% implied yield on the Yes side versus just 24.9% on the No side, suggesting either severe mispricing or very low conviction among traders—evidenced by zero 24-hour volume despite $11.6M in open interest. The 12¢ price implies Democrats have only a 12% chance in what is presumably a Republican-leaning district, but the massive yield differential and neutral regime score (0.5) warrant skepticism about whether this reflects genuine fundamentals or illiquidity-driven distortion. With 200 days to expiration and a moderate 7 cliff risk index, this market may be worth monitoring for mean reversion, though the lack of recent trading activity makes it difficult to assess true market consensus.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the GA-10 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Indicators

Regime

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