Will the Republican Party win the MI-02 House seat?

The market is pricing in an extremely high Republican win probability of 92%, but the stark asymmetry in implied yields—15.8% for Yes versus 2092% for No—reveals severe illiquidity and potential mispricing on the No side, with only $28,323 in open interest and zero 24-hour volume. The 1-cent spread and modest 1-point price decline over seven days suggest the market may be stale, and the elevated Cliff Risk Index of 12 indicates meaningful tail risk as we approach the November 2026 election. This appears to be a low-conviction market where the extreme No yield reflects desperation pricing rather than genuine fundamental value.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MI-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Indicators

Regime

Trade