Will Charles McCall win the 2026 Oklahoma Governor Republican primary election?

Charles McCall's market price has surged 56% over seven days to 14¢, yet the contract shows extreme illiquidity with only $265 in 24-hour volume against $12.7M open interest, suggesting the recent price movement may reflect thin-market dynamics rather than fundamental shifts in his primary prospects. The 3,742% implied yield on the Yes side is extraordinarily high and mathematically unsustainable given the 60-day timeframe, indicating severe mispricing or that traders are pricing in substantial tail risk rather than expected value. With a Cliff Risk Index of 6 and realized volatility exceeding 1,300%, this market exhibits destabilizing conditions typical of low-liquidity prediction markets where small trades can trigger outsized price movements.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for Governor of Oklahoma, scheduled to take place on June 16, 2026. Resolution will be based on the overall winner of the primary, including any potential second round or run-off. If no 2026 Oklahoma Gubernatorial Republican Primary takes place, this market will resolve to “Other.” The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement of the results from the Oklahoma Republican Party; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.

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