Will Brian Cole be the Republican Nominee for NH-01?
Prediction markets currently give a 3% probability that Will Brian Cole be the Republican Nominee for NH-01?. This contract trades at 3¢ on Polymarket, closing September 8, 2026. Brian Cole's nomination odds are priced at an extremely depressed 3¢ with virtually no trading activity ($0 in 24h volume), suggesting this is either a long-shot candidate or potentially mispriced due to illiquidity.
Analysis
Brian Cole's nomination odds are priced at an extremely depressed 3¢ with virtually no trading activity ($0 in 24h volume), suggesting this is either a long-shot candidate or potentially mispriced due to illiquidity. The astronomical implied yield of 8302% on the Yes side reflects the extreme risk premium typical of thin markets, while the 4¢ spread and $3.8M open interest indicate some capital is locked in despite the dormant trading. With 142 days to the September 8, 2026 primary and a Cliff Risk Index of 32, this market carries meaningful execution risk as the nomination date approaches.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the NH-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on September 8, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
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Regime
Trade
sf trade 0xf18cb22261b244c96de3f3dd49f3e040ff4cf56a8a30f9f329389f040ed689de yes 100