Will Jalen Hurts win the 2026 NFL MVP?
Prediction markets currently give a 46% probability that Will Jalen Hurts win the 2026 NFL MVP?. This contract trades at 46¢ on Polymarket, closing February 15, 2027. Jalen Hurts' MVP odds have declined 8.5% over the past week to 42¢, though the market shows severe illiquidity with only $9.81 open interest and zero 24-hour volume, making the price potentially unreliable.
Analysis
Jalen Hurts' MVP odds have declined 8.5% over the past week to 42¢, though the market shows severe illiquidity with only $9.81 open interest and zero 24-hour volume, making the price potentially unreliable. The 84¢ spread and extreme realized volatility of 565% suggest this is a thin, speculative market where the implied yield of 166.6% on the Yes side may not reflect true consensus. With 303 days until expiration and a cliff risk index of 1, the market has adequate time for information arrival (1.8 signals/hour), but the neutral regime and minimal trading activity indicate limited conviction among traders.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to the player who wins the 2026 NFL Most Valuable Player award for the 2026-27 NFL season. In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official winner as determined by NFL rules. If multiple winners are announced then this market will resolve to the player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically. If the 2026-27 NFL season is cancelled, postponed after February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The resolution source for this market will be official information from the NFL; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade 0xf1f62992ec6080bb82206dc8f9213b7ee2fc356967c6eb307cec5afa7f954b80 yes 100