Will Portugal come in last place at Eurovision 2026?

This market shows extreme mispricing with a 43,957% implied yield on the Yes side, suggesting Portugal is dramatically undervalued at 3¢ given the contest's inherent uncertainty across 37+ competing nations. The 27-day window to Eurovision 2026 and minimal 24-hour volume of $1.98 indicate thin liquidity that likely contributes to the distorted pricing, making this a potential arbitrage opportunity if Portugal's actual last-place probability exceeds even 1-2%. The neutral regime score and flat price action over seven days suggest the market hasn't yet corrected this valuation gap, though the high cliff risk index (32) warrants caution around late-breaking information.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to the country whose candidate for Eurovision 2026 places last in the final. If no last place country is announced by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve "Other". All ties will be broken according to EBU's official Eurovision rules. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Eurovision (https://eurovision.tv/), including live footage of Eurovision 2026, however a consensus of credible reporting will suffice.

Indicators

Regime

Trade