Will Catalina Lauf be the Republican nominee for FL-19?

Prediction markets currently give a 48% probability that Will Catalina Lauf be the Republican nominee for FL-19?. This contract trades at 48¢ on Polymarket, closing August 18, 2026.

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48¢
Bid/Ask 46/49¢·Spread 3¢·Vol $0·OI $24,353.247·Closes Aug 18, 2026·118d remaining
0xf43d99c0b796e0e5226dffa31c71c9fab943e3f79c0182c144eea93dc6b77ae2
7-day price134 snapshots · 2 regime
48¢48¢ current
Apr 844¢Apr 20

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the FL-19 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 18, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 334.7%
IY (No) 285.2%
Adj IY 167%
CRI 1
Overround -0.1%
▶ Full indicator table (5)
IndicatorValue
IY (Yes)334.7%
IY (No)285.2%
Adj IY167%
CRI1
Overround-0.1%

Regime

Label
neutral
Score
0.5
Spread
3¢
Computed
4/21/2026, 8:24:59 PM
Indicators computed 4/21/2026, 8:23:18 PM

Trade

View on polymarketsf trade 0xf43d99c0b796e0e5226dffa31c71c9fab943e3f79c0182c144eea93dc6b77ae2 yes 100

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