Will the Republican Party win the AZ-03 House seat?

This market shows extreme mispricing with Republicans priced at just 7¢ despite AZ-03 being a historically competitive district, generating an implausible 2425% implied yield on the Yes side. The zero 24-hour volume combined with $18,255 open interest and a tight 1¢ spread suggests the market is illiquid and potentially stale, with the 7-day price movement (6¢ to 7¢) likely reflecting minimal recent trading rather than genuine information arrival. The extraordinarily high realized volatility (1189%) and cliff risk index (13) indicate this market may be prone to sharp repricing once liquidity returns or the 2026 election cycle intensifies.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Indicators

Regime

Trade