Will the Democratic Party win the NJ-12 House seat?

The Democratic position is heavily favored at 92¢ with a tight 1¢ spread, but the market shows extreme asymmetry with a 2,121.7% implied yield on the No side versus just 16.0% on the Yes side, suggesting minimal liquidity for Republican bets despite $19.8M open interest. With 198 days to expiration and only $11.92 in 24-hour volume, this appears to be a low-liquidity market where the lopsided pricing may not reflect genuine uncertainty in a potentially competitive district. The 12 Cliff Risk Index warrants caution, as the high concentration of capital on the Democratic side could create sharp repricing if political conditions shift.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NJ-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Indicators

Regime

Trade