Will the Democrats win the South Dakota Senate race in 2026?

This market shows extreme asymmetry with a 2099% implied yield on the Yes side versus just 15.9% on the No side, reflecting the 8¢ price that prices Democrats at only an 8% win probability in heavily Republican South Dakota. The $0 24-hour volume combined with $22.3k open interest and a 0¢ spread suggests illiquidity despite the high theoretical yields, indicating this may be a thin market where the extreme pricing could reflect low trading activity rather than genuine consensus. The 1542% realized volatility and 12 cliff risk index are notably elevated, though with over two years until the 2026 election, the market has substantial time for information arrival (0.9/h) to reshape positioning.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm South Dakota U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.

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