Will Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL AFC Championship?

The Jaguars' AFC Championship contract is pricing in an extremely low 7% win probability with an exceptional 1,709% annualized yield on the Yes side, reflecting the long-dated nature (284 days) and minimal liquidity ($1.65K daily volume against $33.9M open interest). The asymmetric payoff structure—where a Yes resolution would return 14x the investment—suggests this is primarily attracting speculative positions rather than fundamental bets, though the modest 3¢ spread and neutral regime score indicate the market isn't experiencing distress. The 13 Cliff Risk Index warrants caution, as Jacksonville's elimination from playoff contention would force immediate resolution to No, making this a binary event risk rather than a traditional probability play.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the team that wins the 2027 AFC championship game. If at any point it becomes impossible for a listed team to win the 2027 NFL AFC championship per the rules of the NFL (e.g., they are eliminated in the playoffs), the corresponding market will resolve to “No”. If the 2027 NFL AFC championship game is cancelled, postponed after March 31, 2027 ET, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source will be official information from NFL (https://www.nfl.com/); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Indicators

Regime

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