Will the Republican Party win the CA-08 House seat?

This market shows extreme mispricing with a 7% Republican probability in a historically Democratic district (CA-08), generating an implausible 2,426% implied yield on a Yes position despite zero 24-hour volume and $17k open interest. The 957% realized volatility and 1.79 vol ratio suggest this is a low-liquidity ghost market with minimal price discovery, likely reflecting a stale or erroneous quote rather than genuine market consensus. With 200 days to expiration and negligible trading activity, this contract appears illiquid and unreliable for serious prediction purposes.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-08 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Indicators

Regime

Trade