Will Monty Fritts win the 2026 Tennessee Governor Republican primary election?

This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume despite $11k open interest, suggesting the 6¢ price may not reflect genuine market consensus but rather stale positioning. The astronomical 5151% implied yield on the Yes side indicates the market is pricing in either a massive underdog bet or potential mispricing, though the neutral regime score and flat 7-day price action suggest limited conviction from traders. With 111 days to expiry and a moderate 16 cliff risk index, this appears to be a speculative position with minimal recent activity rather than an actively traded primary prediction.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for Governor of Tennessee, scheduled to take place on August 6, 2026. Resolution will be based on the overall winner of the primary, including any potential second round or run-off. If no 2026 Tennessee Gubernatorial Republican Primary takes place, this market will resolve to “Other.” The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement of the results from the Tennessee Republican Party; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.

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