Will the Republican Party win the NY-15 House seat?

The Republican contract is severely mispriced at 6¢, reflecting an extraordinarily high implied yield of 2,850% that vastly exceeds the No side's 11.6%, suggesting extreme undervaluation given NY-15's competitive nature and Republican gains in recent cycles. With only $5.999 in 24-hour volume against $39.4M open interest, liquidity is critically thin relative to position size, creating substantial slippage risk and potential for sharp repricing if meaningful capital enters. The 201-day timeframe to the November 2026 election provides ample time for fundamentals to shift, yet the neutral regime score and 16 cliff risk index indicate this market may be vulnerable to sudden moves as the election approaches and polling data accumulates.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-15 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

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Regime

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