Will the Republicans win the Colorado Senate race in 2026?

This market shows extreme mispricing with a 1654% implied yield on the Yes side, suggesting Republicans are dramatically underpriced at just 10¢ despite Colorado's competitive nature and historical Senate volatility. The massive 827% risk-adjusted yield combined with minimal 24-hour volume of $25 against $32.8M open interest indicates severe illiquidity and potential manipulation risk, with the high cliff risk index (9/10) warning of sudden repricing. The sharp 4-cent rally over seven days coupled to the neutral regime score suggests this undervaluation may reflect temporary market inefficiency rather than fundamental consensus.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Colorado U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.

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