Will the Republican Party win the AZ-07 House seat?

This market shows extreme asymmetry with a 1846% implied yield on the Yes side versus only 18.1% on the No side, suggesting the 9¢ price significantly undervalues Republican chances in AZ-07 relative to Democratic odds. The zero 24-hour volume combined with $20,664 open interest and a 2¢ spread indicates illiquidity and potential mispricing, making this a high-risk position despite the 200-day timeframe to resolution. The elevated Cliff Risk Index of 10 and 923% risk-adjusted yield warn that this market may be vulnerable to sudden repricing or liquidity shocks as the November 2026 election approaches.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-07 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Indicators

Regime

Trade