Will the Democratic Party win the VA-01 House seat?

The Democratic contract at 78¢ reflects a heavily favored outcome, but the market shows extreme asymmetry with the No side offering a 644% implied yield versus just 51.2% for Yes, suggesting significant tail risk pricing into a Republican upset. The 431% realized volatility and 6.11 vol ratio indicate substantial price swings despite thin liquidity ($51.67 daily volume), and the 4¢ spread is relatively wide given the high conviction level, pointing to potential mispricing or genuine uncertainty about this nominally safe Democratic seat. With 201 days to expiry and an information arrival rate of 4.0/hour, this market appears to be pricing in meaningful campaign developments or demographic shifts that could threaten the Democratic incumbent.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the VA-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

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Regime

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