Will the Colorado Avalanche win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?
Prediction markets currently give a 25% probability that Will the Colorado Avalanche win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?. This contract trades at 25¢ on Polymarket, closing June 30, 2026. The Colorado Avalanche Stanley Cup contract is trading at a substantial discount to historical win probability, with the 23% price implying roughly 1 in 4.3 odds despite the team's recent playoff pedigree, generating an extreme 1653% annualized yield for YES holders over the remaining 74 days.
Analysis
The Colorado Avalanche Stanley Cup contract is trading at a substantial discount to historical win probability, with the 23% price implying roughly 1 in 4.3 odds despite the team's recent playoff pedigree, generating an extreme 1653% annualized yield for YES holders over the remaining 74 days. The $137.8k daily volume against $168k open interest suggests moderate liquidity with a tight 0¢ spread, though the neutral regime score and modest 2-point price climb over seven days indicate the market lacks strong directional conviction. The 3-level cliff risk and divergent implied yields (1653% YES vs 148% NO) warrant caution, as late-stage Stanley Cup markets can experience sharp repricing if the Avalanche make unexpected playoff runs or face early elimination.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Colorado Avalanche win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will resolve to “No” if it becomes impossible for this team to win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup based off the rules of the NHL. The resolution source for this market will be information from the NHL.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade 0xf8f63bb47b2a7c2e0c1be3cedf4075079b11c07476d76a9469065b0c4791961a yes 100