Will Chris Swanson win the 2026 Michigan Governor Democratic primary election?
Prediction markets currently give a 5% probability that Will Chris Swanson win the 2026 Michigan Governor Democratic primary election?. This contract trades at 5¢ on Polymarket, closing August 4, 2026. Chris Swanson's odds have collapsed dramatically from 28¢ to 9¢ over seven days, suggesting significant negative information arrived about his candidacy, yet the market remains extremely illiquid with only $43.7 in 24-hour volume against $4.4M open interest.
Analysis
Chris Swanson's odds have collapsed dramatically from 28¢ to 9¢ over seven days, suggesting significant negative information arrived about his candidacy, yet the market remains extremely illiquid with only $43.7 in 24-hour volume against $4.4M open interest. The astronomical 3015% implied yield on "Yes" positions reflects the severe mispricing typical of thin markets, while the 9/10 cliff risk index and 3805% realized volatility indicate this contract is highly unstable and prone to sharp reversals as the August 2026 primary approaches.
Also on kalshi at 9¢(Δ -4¢)
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the winner of the Democratic Primary for Governor of Michigan, scheduled to take place on August 4, 2026. Resolution will be based on the overall winner of the primary, including any potential second round or run-off. If no 2026 Michigan Gubernatorial Democratic Primary takes place, this market will resolve to “Other.” The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement of the results from the Michigan Democratic Party; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
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sf trade 0xf947f7460a369fddd2003e60878e743a58fd32cf7237a873b33b3eec959dde6c yes 100