Will the Democratic Party win the MI-03 House seat?

This market shows extreme asymmetry with a 1029% implied yield on the "No" side versus just 32% on the "Yes" side, suggesting the 85¢ price may be artificially inflated by low liquidity ($7,904 open interest, zero 24-hour volume). The realized volatility of 1271% and vol ratio of 18.30 indicate this is a highly unstable market, though the neutral regime and minimal 7-day price movement (84¢ to 85¢) suggest recent stability despite the underlying volatility. With 201 days to expiration and a 6¢ spread, traders should be cautious about the reliability of this pricing given the illiquidity and potential for sharp repricing as the election approaches.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MI-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

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