Will the Republican Party win the PA-11 House seat?

The Republican contract is pricing PA-11 at a dominant 89¢ with a tight 1¢ spread, reflecting strong confidence in GOP retention of this seat. However, the extreme 1471.7% implied yield on the No side signals severe mispricing risk—the asymmetric payoff structure suggests either the market is dramatically underestimating Democratic chances or liquidity constraints ($30.98 daily volume on $22.3k open interest) are distorting pricing. With 201 days to expiry and a cliff risk index of 8, this market warrants caution given the thin trading activity relative to the lopsided probability assessment.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the PA-11 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Indicators

Regime

Trade