Will the Republicans win the Tennessee governor race in 2026?

The market is pricing in an extremely lopsided 91% probability for Republican victory in Tennessee's 2026 gubernatorial race, yet the asymmetric implied yields (18.1% for Yes vs. 1846% for No) reveal severe liquidity imbalance—the No side is drastically underfunded relative to its tail-risk pricing. With zero 24-hour volume despite $24.7M open interest and a concerning Cliff Risk Index of 10, this appears to be a stale or illiquid market where the extreme No yield may not reflect genuine market conviction but rather the mathematical artifact of minimal contrarian positioning.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Tennessee gubernatorial election. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.

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