Will Metz be relegated from Ligue 1 after the 2025–26 season?
Prediction markets currently give a 94% probability that Will Metz be relegated from Ligue 1 after the 2025–26 season?. This contract trades at 94¢ on Polymarket, closing May 30, 2026. The market is pricing Metz relegation at 94¢ on Polymarket versus 63¢ on Kalshi, representing a significant 31-cent cross-venue arbitrage gap that suggests either Polymarket traders are substantially more bearish on Metz's prospects or liquidity constraints on one venue are distorting pricing.
Analysis
The market is pricing Metz relegation at 94¢ on Polymarket versus 63¢ on Kalshi, representing a significant 31-cent cross-venue arbitrage gap that suggests either Polymarket traders are substantially more bearish on Metz's prospects or liquidity constraints on one venue are distorting pricing. The extreme implied yield on the "No" side (14,168.7%) combined with zero 24-hour volume and an 11-cent spread indicates severe illiquidity, making the 94¢ price potentially unreliable despite the market's recent 6-cent rally over seven days. With only 40 days until expiry and $350,988 in open interest, traders should be cautious about the Polymarket quote and may find better value on Kalshi's more conservative 63¢ pricing.
Also on kalshi at 64¢(Δ +30¢)
Resolution rules
This is a polymarket to predict which clubs are relegated from Ligue 1 after the 2025–26 season. If the listed club is officially relegated by Ligue 1 following the 2025–26 season, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, it will resolve to "No". If the 2025–26 Ligue 1 season is canceled or not completed by October 1, 2026, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source will be official information from Ligue 1. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade 0xfa6cdc4725de3762f80f3682226c27ab8a30e55cef8d69f700820a45f50ccde1 yes 100