Will the US federal government take a stake in Freeport-McMoRan Inc.?

This market shows extreme asymmetry with a 1142% implied yield on "Yes" contrasting sharply against just 17.4% on "No," suggesting either deep skepticism about government intervention or potential mispricing given the 11¢ price. The dramatic 7-day collapse from 27¢ to 11¢ combined with zero 24-hour volume and a 3¢ spread indicates illiquidity and possible capitulation selling, while the 2075% realized volatility and 14.55 vol ratio signal this is a highly speculative position with substantial uncertainty. With 259 days to expiry and a 2.7/h information arrival rate, the market appears to be pricing in an unlikely but not impossible scenario, though the lack of recent trading activity raises questions about whether the current price reflects genuine consensus or simply thin liquidity.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the U.S. federal government takes a stake in the listed company by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Takes a stake refers to the U.S. federal government acquiring direct equity ownership, voting shares, convertible rights treated as equity, or equivalent ownership interests in the listed company or of a legal vehicle that primarily owns the listed company. Stakes acquired through independent entities entirely controlled or owned by the U.S. federal government (e.g. a sovereign wealth fund, state-owned enterprise, etc.) will count. Non-equity financial instruments or stakes acquired by private persons or entities not owned or controlled by the US federal government will not count; acquisitions by by states, pensions, index or mutual funds, or consortia will not qualify. An official US federal government announcement of a completed qualifying acquisition, or of a binding agreement to complete a qualifying acquisition, within this market’s timeframe will be sufficient to resolve this market to “Yes”. Speculation, suggestions, plans, or other announcements which do not announce a completed acquisition or a binding acquisition agreement, however, will not count. The resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government and a consensus of credible reporting.

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