Will the US federal government take a stake in Samsung Electronics Co., Ltd.?
0xbabf4d97e342229baf65bfb0d7127c09a5bec0d76a7beb49bc47b1d9cf5c4091 · closes Dec 31, 2026 · 259 days remaining
Price
Indicator Stack
| Indicator | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| IY (Yes) | 738.5% | Annualized return if held to expiry, computed from the YES side |
| IY (No) | 26.8% | Annualized return on the NO side |
| CRI | 5 | Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market is approaching resolution |
| EE | — | Event Overround — sum of YES prices across sibling outcomes |
| Overround | 2.0% | Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family |
| LAS | 1.25 | Liquidity Availability Score — null when ticker is outside the warm cron top 500 |
| CVR | — | Contagion Velocity Rate — null when not in warm cron |
| RV | 3371% | Realized Volatility — annualized stddev of returns from 48h price history |
| VR | 15.32 | Vol Ratio — realized vol / theoretical max. >0.8 very active, <0.1 dead |
| IAR | 5.9/h | Info Arrival Rate — meaningful price changes per hour (48h window) |
| Adj IY | 0% | Risk-Adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets (low VR) and high friction (high LAS) |
| Residual VR | — | VR minus expected VR from scheduled catalysts. Positive = market knows something calendar doesn't |
7-Day History
835 indicator snapshots · 5 regime snapshots
Regime Snapshot
About this market
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the U.S. federal government takes a stake in the listed company by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Takes a stake refers to the U.S. federal government acquiring direct equity ownership, voting shares, convertible rights treated as equity, or equivalent ownership interests in the listed company or of a legal vehicle that primarily owns the listed company. Stakes acquired through independent entities entirely controlled or owned by the U.S. federal government (e.g. a sovereign wealth fund, state-owned enterprise, etc.) will count. Non-equity financial instruments or stakes acquired by private persons or entities not owned or controlled by the US federal government will not count; acquisitions by by states, pensions, index or mutual funds, or consortia will not qualify. An official US federal government announcement of a completed qualifying acquisition, or of a binding agreement to complete a qualifying acquisition, within this market’s timeframe will be sufficient to resolve this market to “Yes”. Speculation, suggestions, plans, or other announcements which do not announce a completed acquisition or a binding acquisition agreement, however, will not count. The resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government and a consensus of credible reporting.
How to trade
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Or with the sf CLI: sf trade 0xbabf4d97e342229baf65bfb0d7127c09a5bec0d76a7beb49bc47b1d9cf5c4091 yes 100