Will the US federal government take a stake in Micron Technology, Inc.?

This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume despite $912k open interest, and the 14¢ spread represents an unusually wide 87.5% bid-ask gap that suggests price discovery challenges. The 741% implied yield on the "Yes" side is extraordinarily high—typical of low-probability tail-risk events—while the 1534% realized volatility and 5.2 vol ratio indicate this market has experienced massive historical swings, likely driven by sporadic news about semiconductor policy or government intervention discussions. With 259 days to expiry and a neutral regime, the 16¢ price appears to reflect genuine skepticism about direct federal equity stakes in Micron, though the combination of zero liquidity and extreme volatility makes this a speculative position rather than a reliable probability estimate.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the U.S. federal government takes a stake in the listed company by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Takes a stake refers to the U.S. federal government acquiring direct equity ownership, voting shares, convertible rights treated as equity, or equivalent ownership interests in the listed company or of a legal vehicle that primarily owns the listed company. Stakes acquired through independent entities entirely controlled or owned by the U.S. federal government (e.g. a sovereign wealth fund, state-owned enterprise, etc.) will count. Non-equity financial instruments or stakes acquired by private persons or entities not owned or controlled by the US federal government will not count; acquisitions by by states, pensions, index or mutual funds, or consortia will not qualify. An official US federal government announcement of a completed qualifying acquisition, or of a binding agreement to complete a qualifying acquisition, within this market’s timeframe will be sufficient to resolve this market to “Yes”. Speculation, suggestions, plans, or other announcements which do not announce a completed acquisition or a binding acquisition agreement, however, will not count. The resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government and a consensus of credible reporting.

Indicators

Regime

Trade