Will the US federal government take a stake in IonQ, Inc.?

This illiquid market with zero 24-hour volume and a wide 7¢ spread shows extreme asymmetry, with the Yes side offering an extraordinary 1141% implied yield versus just 17.4% for No—a 65x differential suggesting either severe mispricing or genuine tail-risk hedging. The price has collapsed 61% over seven days (from 27¢ to 11¢) while realized volatility sits at 2294%, indicating either new bearish information or mean reversion from an initially inflated position, though the high info arrival rate of 5.4/hour and cliff risk index of 8 suggest material uncertainty remains. With 259 days to expiry and only $980k open interest, this appears to be a speculative position rather than a liquid market, making the extreme yields potentially illusory given execution risk.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the U.S. federal government takes a stake in the listed company by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Takes a stake refers to the U.S. federal government acquiring direct equity ownership, voting shares, convertible rights treated as equity, or equivalent ownership interests in the listed company or of a legal vehicle that primarily owns the listed company. Stakes acquired through independent entities entirely controlled or owned by the U.S. federal government (e.g. a sovereign wealth fund, state-owned enterprise, etc.) will count. Non-equity financial instruments or stakes acquired by private persons or entities not owned or controlled by the US federal government will not count; acquisitions by by states, pensions, index or mutual funds, or consortia will not qualify. An official US federal government announcement of a completed qualifying acquisition, or of a binding agreement to complete a qualifying acquisition, within this market’s timeframe will be sufficient to resolve this market to “Yes”. Speculation, suggestions, plans, or other announcements which do not announce a completed acquisition or a binding acquisition agreement, however, will not count. The resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government and a consensus of credible reporting.

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