Will the US federal government take a stake in D-Wave Quantum Inc.?

This illiquid micro-market on D-Wave government equity involvement shows extreme asymmetry, with a 741% implied yield on "Yes" contrasting sharply against 26.9% on "No"—a 27.5x spread suggesting either deep skepticism or minimal trading activity. The $460.91 open interest and zero 24-hour volume indicate virtually no market depth, while the 7-day price collapse from 25¢ to 16¢ and extraordinary 2018% realized volatility suggest this market may be driven by sporadic, uninformed trades rather than genuine probability discovery. With 259 days to expiry and a Cliff Risk Index of 5, the extreme yield on "Yes" likely reflects illiquidity premium rather than actionable signal about federal D-Wave investment prospects.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the U.S. federal government takes a stake in the listed company by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Takes a stake refers to the U.S. federal government acquiring direct equity ownership, voting shares, convertible rights treated as equity, or equivalent ownership interests in the listed company or of a legal vehicle that primarily owns the listed company. Stakes acquired through independent entities entirely controlled or owned by the U.S. federal government (e.g. a sovereign wealth fund, state-owned enterprise, etc.) will count. Non-equity financial instruments or stakes acquired by private persons or entities not owned or controlled by the US federal government will not count; acquisitions by by states, pensions, index or mutual funds, or consortia will not qualify. An official US federal government announcement of a completed qualifying acquisition, or of a binding agreement to complete a qualifying acquisition, within this market’s timeframe will be sufficient to resolve this market to “Yes”. Speculation, suggestions, plans, or other announcements which do not announce a completed acquisition or a binding acquisition agreement, however, will not count. The resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government and a consensus of credible reporting.

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