Will the US federal government take a stake in Anthropic PBC?

This illiquid market with zero 24-hour volume shows a sharp 29% price decline over seven days (from 14¢ to 10¢), suggesting deteriorating conviction in a government stake despite the extreme 1,270% implied yield on the Yes side. The 4¢ spread and $7.8M open interest indicate minimal trading activity, making the current 10% probability potentially unreliable; the high cliff risk index (9) suggests binary event risk that could trigger sudden repricing. With 259 days to expiry, the asymmetric payoff structure (635% risk-adjusted yield) may be attracting speculative interest, but the lack of recent volume raises questions about whether this reflects genuine market sentiment or stale pricing.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the U.S. federal government takes a stake in the listed company by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Takes a stake refers to the U.S. federal government acquiring direct equity ownership, voting shares, convertible rights treated as equity, or equivalent ownership interests in the listed company or of a legal vehicle that primarily owns the listed company. Stakes acquired through independent entities entirely controlled or owned by the U.S. federal government (e.g. a sovereign wealth fund, state-owned enterprise, etc.) will count. Non-equity financial instruments or stakes acquired by private persons or entities not owned or controlled by the US federal government will not count; acquisitions by by states, pensions, index or mutual funds, or consortia will not qualify. An official US federal government announcement of a completed qualifying acquisition, or of a binding agreement to complete a qualifying acquisition, within this market’s timeframe will be sufficient to resolve this market to “Yes”. Speculation, suggestions, plans, or other announcements which do not announce a completed acquisition or a binding acquisition agreement, however, will not count. The resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government and a consensus of credible reporting.

Indicators

Regime

Trade