Will the US federal government take a stake in Rigetti Computing, Inc.?

This Rigetti Computing market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume despite $1.86K open interest and a massive 22¢ spread, suggesting the 12¢ price may not reflect true consensus. The 944% implied yield on the "Yes" side is extraordinarily high and likely reflects the wide bid-ask gap rather than genuine conviction, while the 7.39 volatility ratio and 2,131% realized volatility indicate this is a highly speculative position with minimal price discovery. With 259 days to expiration and only 1.4 information arrivals per hour, this appears to be a low-conviction, illiquid tail bet on a government equity stake in a quantum computing company.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the U.S. federal government takes a stake in the listed company by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Takes a stake refers to the U.S. federal government acquiring direct equity ownership, voting shares, convertible rights treated as equity, or equivalent ownership interests in the listed company or of a legal vehicle that primarily owns the listed company. Stakes acquired through independent entities entirely controlled or owned by the U.S. federal government (e.g. a sovereign wealth fund, state-owned enterprise, etc.) will count. Non-equity financial instruments or stakes acquired by private persons or entities not owned or controlled by the US federal government will not count; acquisitions by by states, pensions, index or mutual funds, or consortia will not qualify. An official US federal government announcement of a completed qualifying acquisition, or of a binding agreement to complete a qualifying acquisition, within this market’s timeframe will be sufficient to resolve this market to “Yes”. Speculation, suggestions, plans, or other announcements which do not announce a completed acquisition or a binding acquisition agreement, however, will not count. The resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government and a consensus of credible reporting.

Indicators

Regime

Trade