Will the Republican Party win the OR-04 House seat?

This market shows extreme mispricing with a 9-cent price implying only a 9% Republican win probability in OR-04, yet the implied yield on the Yes side reaches an extraordinary 1,839%—suggesting either severe illiquidity or a significant market inefficiency. The $34.2M open interest combined with zero 24-hour volume indicates this is a stale, illiquid position where the last trade may not reflect current fundamentals, and the 1-cent spread provides minimal liquidity for meaningful position adjustments. With 201 days to expiry and a high cliff risk index of 10, this market warrants caution; the extreme yield likely reflects the difficulty of exiting a small position rather than genuine expected returns.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the OR-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Indicators

Regime

Trade