Will the Democratic Party win the MI-01 House seat?

The Democratic contract is pricing MI-01 as a heavily Republican-favored seat at just 12¢, implying a 12% Democratic win probability, yet the extreme 1334% implied yield on the Yes side suggests severe illiquidity with only $15,351 in open interest and zero 24-hour volume. The 2¢ spread and modest 7-day price decline from 13¢ to 12¢ indicate thin market activity, making this contract vulnerable to sharp repricing once meaningful volume emerges closer to the November 2026 election.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MI-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Indicators

Regime

Trade