Will S&P 500 (SPX) close at >$8,000 in December?

This market exhibits extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume despite $3.5M open interest, suggesting the 7¢ price may not reflect true consensus given the wide 3¢ spread. The 1,879% implied yield on the yes side is extraordinarily high and likely a mispricing artifact of the low price floor rather than genuine market conviction—the SPX would need to appreciate roughly 14% from current levels (~$7,000) in 26 months, which the neutral regime score and stagnant price action suggest the market views as unlikely. With 258 days to expiry and a Cliff Risk Index of 13, this appears to be a speculative position with minimal trading activity rather than an efficiently priced contract.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the official closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on the final trading day of December 2026. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price. The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."

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Regime

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