Will Ferrari be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion?

Ferrari's championship odds have compressed significantly over the past week, declining from 14¢ to 11¢, suggesting deteriorating confidence in their 2026 prospects despite the team's recent technical investments. The extraordinarily high implied yield of 1,267.7% on the YES side reflects the extreme asymmetry between the 11¢ price and potential payout, though this is offset by a concerning Cliff Risk Index of 8, indicating substantial tail risk and potential for sharp repricing. With $58.5M in open interest but only $360 in daily volume, liquidity is severely constrained relative to the market size, creating potential execution challenges for larger positions and suggesting this pricing may not reflect true consensus among sophisticated bettors.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Constructors’ Championship for the 2026 F1 season. This market will resolve as soon as the official results of the final scheduled race of the 2026 F1 season are known. In the case of a tie between multiple teams, this market will resolve according to the tiebreak procedure used by F1 to determine the 2026 F1 Constructors’ champion. If at any point it becomes impossible for a listed team to win the 2026 F1 Constructors’ Championship based on the rules of F1 (e.g., they are mathematically eliminated from contention), the corresponding market will resolve to “No.” If the F1 season is permanently canceled or has not been completed by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The resolution source for this market will be information from F1.

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