Will Lithuania come in last place at Eurovision 2026?
Prediction markets currently give a 2% probability that Will Lithuania come in last place at Eurovision 2026?. This contract trades at 2¢ on Polymarket, closing May 16, 2026. Lithuania's chances have collapsed dramatically, dropping from 6¢ to 2¢ over the past week—a 67% decline that suggests either improved contestant expectations or shifting betting sentiment ahead of the May 2026 close.
Analysis
Lithuania's chances have collapsed dramatically, dropping from 6¢ to 2¢ over the past week—a 67% decline that suggests either improved contestant expectations or shifting betting sentiment ahead of the May 2026 close. The 2% implied probability sits at the extreme low end despite $2.5M in open interest, indicating strong conviction among holders that Lithuania won't finish last, though the zero 24-hour volume and 1¢ spread suggest minimal liquidity for new positions. This represents a notable contrarian opportunity if you believe Lithuania's Eurovision prospects are genuinely worse than the market prices them.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to the country whose candidate for Eurovision 2026 places last in the final. If no last place country is announced by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve "Other". All ties will be broken according to EBU's official Eurovision rules. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Eurovision (https://eurovision.tv/), including live footage of Eurovision 2026, however a consensus of credible reporting will suffice.
Regime
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sf trade 0xfe5ac93668ffd3b97841906b0fee264a5277bc122ba51781d5086fe40a94d2e5 yes 100