Will Robert Raimondo win the 2026 Rhode Island Governor Republican primary election?
Prediction markets currently give a 5% probability that Will Robert Raimondo win the 2026 Rhode Island Governor Republican primary election?. This contract trades at 5¢ on Polymarket, closing September 8, 2026. This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume despite $8.8M open interest, suggesting the OI figure may be stale or the position is largely illiquid.
Analysis
This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume despite $8.8M open interest, suggesting the OI figure may be stale or the position is largely illiquid. The 4,817% implied yield on the Yes side is a classic sign of a deeply mispriced long-tail outcome, while the 6¢ spread and 1,998% realized volatility indicate this is a highly speculative, thinly-traded contract where small trades could move prices dramatically. With 144 days to expiry and a Cliff Risk Index of 19, this market carries significant tail risk, and the neutral regime score suggests no clear directional momentum is driving current pricing.
Also on kalshi at 4¢(Δ +1¢)
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for Governor of Rhode Island, scheduled to take place on September 8, 2026. Resolution will be based on the overall winner of the primary, including any potential second round or run-off. If no 2026 Rhode Island Gubernatorial Republican Primary takes place, this market will resolve to “Other.” The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement of the results from the Rhode Island Republican Party; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade 0xff5ba6924156e4ad7678a7a647c6b7804bc4204dde4077a46bfde7c891e90f3c yes 100