What is the current probability for "Will S&P 500 (SPX) close at $6,000-$6,500 in December?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 21¢ (21% implied probability) on Polymarket. It closes on December 31, 2026. 253 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "Will S&P 500 (SPX) close at $6,000-$6,500 in December?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 577.1% and 36.1% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "Will S&P 500 (SPX) close at $6,000-$6,500 in December?"?

This market trades on Polymarket, a blockchain-based prediction market. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

Will S&P 500 (SPX) close at $6,000-$6,500 in December?

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Prediction markets currently give a 21% probability that Will S&P 500 (SPX) close at $6,000-$6,500 in December?. This contract trades at 21¢ on Polymarket, closing December 31, 2026.

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21¢

Bid/Ask 10/31¢·Spread 21¢·Vol $0·OI $2,344.84·Closes Dec 31, 2026·253d remaining

0xffc097fe74b53cb240a4fa60d20cc1f325242f4a98a173f1359b18c20a17a301

7-day price1569 snapshots · 3 regime

28¢21¢ current

Apr 811¢Apr 22

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the official closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on the final trading day of December 2026. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price. The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."

Indicators

IY (Yes) 577.1%

IY (No) 36.1%

Adj IY 289%

CRI 4

Overround 0.2%

▶ Full indicator table (5)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	577.1%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	36.1%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	289%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	4	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
Overround	0.2%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.5

Spread

21¢

Computed

4/22/2026, 12:50:59 AM

Indicators computed 4/22/2026, 12:38:18 AM

Trade

View on polymarket →sf trade 0xffc097fe74b53cb240a4fa60d20cc1f325242f4a98a173f1359b18c20a17a301 yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →

Resolution rules

Indicators

Regime

Trade

Related concepts

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