Will Park Heong-joon win the 2026 Busan Mayoral Election?

This market displays extreme asymmetry with a 3794% implied yield on the Yes side versus 159% on the No side, suggesting either severe mispricing or very low confidence in Park Heong-joon's candidacy at just 17¢. The 387% realized volatility and high cliff risk index (5) indicate this is a highly uncertain, binary event with potential for sharp repricing, though the flat 7-day price action and modest $1.2M daily volume suggest limited recent conviction either direction. With 47 days to resolution and a 0.69 vol ratio, the market appears to be pricing in significant information arrival before the June 3 election, making this a speculative position rather than a settled consensus.

Resolution rules

The 2026 Busan mayoral election is scheduled to take place on June 3, 2026 to elect the next mayor of Busan. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election. If the result of this election isn't known by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the South Korean government, specifically the National Election Commission.

Indicators

Regime

Trade