Will Sunrisers Hyderabad win the 2026 Indian Premier League?

Sunrisers Hyderabad is priced at an extremely depressed 6¢ with an extraordinary 13,020% implied yield on the Yes side, suggesting severe mispricing or a structural issue—the team's historical IPL performance doesn't justify such an extreme probability discount relative to other franchises. With $3.4M open interest but only $726K in 24-hour volume and 44 days to expiry, liquidity is moderate and the market appears illiquid relative to its size, creating potential for sharp repricing if new information emerges. The 1,672% realized volatility and 16 Cliff Risk Index indicate this market has experienced extreme price swings, likely driven by sporadic large trades in a thin order book rather than fundamental shifts in the team's championship prospects.

Resolution rules

The 2026 Indian Premier League (IPL) T20 cricket competition is scheduled to take place from March 26 to May 31, 2026. This market will resolve according to the team that wins the 2026 Indian Premier League. If at any point it becomes impossible for a listed team to win the 2026 Indian Premier League based on the rules of the competition (e.g., they do not advance to the playoffs), the corresponding market will resolve immediately to “No”. If the 2026 Indian Premier League season is permanently canceled or there is otherwise no winner declared by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source will be the IPL (https://www.iplt20.com/); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Indicators

Regime

Trade