Will the Republican Party win the popular vote in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives midterm elections by between 2% and 4%?

This market shows extreme asymmetry with a 1471.6% implied yield on the Yes side versus just 22.5% on the No side, suggesting the 11¢ price significantly undervalues a Republican 2-4% popular vote win relative to broader market consensus on GOP performance. The $4,689 open interest against zero 24-hour volume indicates stale pricing with no recent trading activity to validate the current level, and the 8 Cliff Risk Index warns of potential sharp repricing closer to the November 2026 resolution date. With 201 days to expiration, this narrow outcome band (2-4% margin) remains a relatively specific prediction that may attract value hunters if polling trends shift toward Republican overperformance in the final months before the election.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the popular vote margin of victory between the Democratic Party and the Republican Party in the US House of Representatives midterm elections, scheduled for November 3, 2026. For the purpose of this market, the “popular vote margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentage of valid votes cast for all Democratic Party House candidates and the percentage of valid votes cast for all Republican Party House candidates in this election. The percentage of the valid votes cast for each party’s House candidates will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes that party’s House candidates receive by the sum of all valid votes cast for U.S. House candidates in the election. Only votes cast for candidates for U.S. Representative (voting members of the House of Representatives from districts in the 50 states) will be considered; votes for Delegates and the Resident Commissioner will not be considered. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. This market will resolve based on the vote totals as published by the US Clerk of the House. Any recount included in the Clerk of the House’s publication will be considered. If the US House of Representatives midterm elections do not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be the 2026 midterm election results published by the US Clerk of the House (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Election-Statistics/). If the 2026 midterm elections take place, and the Clerk of the House does not publish the results of this election by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source may be chosen.

Indicators

Regime

Trade