Will the Democratic Party of Korea (DP) win the 2026 South Korean local elections?

The Democratic Party is priced at an extreme 97¢ with a massive 25,101% implied yield on the "No" side, reflecting severe mispricing or a structural issue rather than genuine market conviction—the 90% realized volatility and 1.83 vol ratio suggest significant uncertainty despite the flat 7-day price action. With only $27.2k open interest and $2.4k daily volume on a binary outcome 47 days from resolution, liquidity is dangerously thin, making the 97¢ price potentially unreliable and vulnerable to sharp reversals if new information arrives (0.8 info events/hour). The cliff risk index of 32 and neutral regime indicate this market could experience sudden repricing, particularly given South Korea's competitive political environment where local elections historically show volatility.

Resolution rules

South Korean local elections are scheduled to be held on June 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the party whose official candidates win the most head of local government (Mayor or Governor) elections for South Korea’s upper-level local governments during these elections. A candidate will be considered an official candidate of a party if they are officially nominated by that party and are registered for the relevant election in affiliation with that party. Independent candidates will not count for any party. South Korea’s upper-level local governments include the following cities and provinces: Cities (mayoral elections): Seoul, Busan, Daegu, Incheon, Gwangju, Daejeon, Ulsan, & Sejong Provinces (governor elections): Gyeonggi, North Chungcheong, South Chungcheong, North Jeolla, South Jeolla, North Gyeongsang, South Gyeongsang, Jeju, & Gangwon. A party will have won as soon as it becomes mathematically impossible for any other party to equal or surpass its number of wins in these elections. In the case of a tie between two or more parties for the greatest number of head of local government elections won, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose English name comes first in alphabetical order, as listed in this market group. Resolution of this market will be based on the results of the relevant elections, once those results are official. This market will remain open until a party has won or until the results of all of the relevant elections are made official. If the results of any of the relevant 2026 South Korean local elections aren’t known by January 31, 2027 11:59 PM ET, the winning party will be determined based on the available results up to that point. If none of the results of the relevant 2026 Korean local elections are known by that time, this market will resolve to “Other”. This market will resolve based on the results of the elections as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the South Korean government, specifically the National Election Commission.

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