What is the current probability for "2027 Best Actor Oscar nominations?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 50¢ (50% implied probability) on Kalshi. It closes on December 31, 2027. 619 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "2027 Best Actor Oscar nominations?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 69.3% and 50.3% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "2027 Best Actor Oscar nominations?"?

This market trades on Kalshi, a US-regulated prediction market exchange. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

2027 Best Actor Oscar nominations?

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Prediction markets currently give a 50% probability that 2027 Best Actor Oscar nominations?. This contract trades at 50¢ on Kalshi, closing December 31, 2027. This Sebastian Stan Best Actor nomination market shows virtually no trading activity ($0 in 24h volume) despite a wide 5¢ spread and modest $2.1k open interest, suggesting thin liquidity and potential difficulty executing positions.

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50¢

Bid/Ask 46/50¢·Spread 4¢·Vol $9.66·OI $2,138.48·Closes Dec 31, 2027·619d remaining

KXOSCARNOMACTO-27-SEB

7-day price240 snapshots · 3 regime

53¢46¢ current

Apr 1046¢Apr 16

Analysis

4d ago

This Sebastian Stan Best Actor nomination market shows virtually no trading activity ($0 in 24h volume) despite a wide 5¢ spread and modest $2.1k open interest, suggesting thin liquidity and potential difficulty executing positions. The 53¢ price implies a 53% probability, but the extremely high 170% realized volatility and 2.08 vol ratio indicate significant price swings relative to fundamentals, with the contract declining 7¢ over the past week. The 69% risk-adjusted implied yield on the Yes side appears attractive but comes with substantial execution risk given the illiquid market and 624-day timeframe to the 2027 Oscars.

Resolution rules

If Sebastian Stan has been nominated for Best Actor at the 99th Academy Awards, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 69.3%

IY (No) 50.3%

Adj IY 32%

CRI 1

Overround 3.5%

LAS 0.09

▶ Full indicator table (6)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	69.3%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	50.3%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	32%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	1	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
Overround	3.5%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family
LAS	0.09	Liquidity Availability Score

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.341

Spread

4¢

Computed

4/21/2026, 9:24:18 PM

Observability lowEvent type cultural

Has orderbookIndicators computed 4/21/2026, 9:23:17 PM

Trade

View on kalshi →sf trade KXOSCARNOMACTO-27-SEB yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →