What is the current probability for "Will Democrats win the House in 2026?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 86¢ (86% implied probability) on Kalshi. It closes on February 1, 2027. 286 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "Will Democrats win the House in 2026?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 22.6% and 724.2% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "Will Democrats win the House in 2026?"?

This market trades on Kalshi, a US-regulated prediction market exchange. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

Will Democrats win the House in 2026?

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Prediction markets currently give a 86% probability that Will Democrats win the House in 2026?. This contract trades at 86¢ on Kalshi, closing February 1, 2027. The 86¢ price reflects strong Democratic favoritism for retaining House control, though the extremely asymmetric implied yields (22.2% for Yes vs.

██████████████████████████████████░░░░░░

86¢

Bid/Ask 85/86¢·Spread 1¢·Vol $21,208.77·OI $2,579,547.72·Closes Feb 1, 2027·286d remaining

CONTROLH-2026-D

Analysis

4d ago

The 86¢ price reflects strong Democratic favoritism for retaining House control, though the extremely asymmetric implied yields (22.2% for Yes vs. 711.8% for No) signal that No contracts offer outsized returns if the market reprices downward. With $2.58M open interest against only $12,962 in daily volume, liquidity is notably thin relative to position size, creating potential slippage risk for larger traders. The 291-day timeframe to expiry and neutral regime score (0.396) suggest the market is pricing in baseline political conditions, but the elevated Cliff Risk Index of 6 indicates meaningful tail risk around the 2026 midterms.

Cross-venue

Also on polymarket at 85¢(Δ +1¢)

View counterpart →Match confidence 0.91IY 33.0%Close-time delta 2175h

Resolution rules

If the Democratic Party has won control of the House in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 22.6%

IY (No) 724.2%

Adj IY 358%

CRI 6

LAS 0.01

▶ Full indicator table (5)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	22.6%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	724.2%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	358%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	6	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
LAS	0.01	Liquidity Availability Score

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.396

Spread

1¢

Computed

4/22/2026, 12:40:54 AM

SF edge 7.0¢ yesObservability lowEvent type political

Edges (1)

NO +7¢thesis — The Hormuz Strait is America's final battle — not because it will lose militaril

Has orderbookIndicators computed 4/22/2026, 12:38:18 AM

Trade

View on kalshi →sf trade CONTROLH-2026-D yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →