Who will run for the Republican presidential nomination in 2028?
Prediction markets currently give a 14% probability that Who will run for the Republican presidential nomination in 2028?. This contract trades at 14¢ on Kalshi, closing January 1, 2028. This Jared Kushner nomination market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume and just $289 open interest, making the 776% implied yield on the Yes side largely theoretical.
Analysis
This Jared Kushner nomination market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume and just $289 open interest, making the 776% implied yield on the Yes side largely theoretical. The 7-cent spread is unusually wide relative to the 13-cent midpoint, suggesting significant uncertainty among the few market participants, while the flat 7-day price action indicates minimal new information flow. With 625 days to expiration, the market is pricing in only a 13% probability of Kushner entering the race, though the high cliff risk index (13) warns that resolution could be binary and sudden.
Resolution rules
If Jared Kushner announces a presidential campaign to contest the presidential nomination of the Republican party for the 2028 U.S. presidential election before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KX2028RRUN-28-JKUS yes 100