Will average **gas prices** be above or below $5.50 by Dec 31, 2026?
Prediction markets currently give a 13% probability that Will average **gas prices** be above or below $5.50 by Dec 31, 2026?. This contract trades at 13¢ on Kalshi, closing December 31, 2026. This market is pricing in only a 20% probability of gas exceeding $5.50 by end-2026, yet the asymmetric payoff structure creates an extreme 1,623% implied yield on the Yes side versus just 12.3% on the No side—a red flag suggesting either severe underpricing of tail risk or market skepticism about another price spike.
Analysis
This market is pricing in only a 20% probability of gas exceeding $5.50 by end-2026, yet the asymmetric payoff structure creates an extreme 1,623% implied yield on the Yes side versus just 12.3% on the No side—a red flag suggesting either severe underpricing of tail risk or market skepticism about another price spike. The zero 24-hour volume and thin $404 open interest indicate illiquid conditions, making the 10¢ spread potentially misleading; with 259 days to expiry, this market may be too thin to reflect genuine consensus. The neutral regime score and flat 7-day price action suggest the market hasn't reacted to recent macro developments, so traders should verify whether current gas fundamentals ($3-4 range) support the low probability or if this represents genuine edge.
Resolution rules
If average regular gas prices for Florida are strictly greater than $5.50 by Dec 31, 2026 according to AAA, the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXAAAGASMAXFL-26DEC31-5.50 yes 100