Will average **gas prices** be above or below $5.70 by Dec 31, 2026?
Prediction markets currently give a 10% probability that Will average **gas prices** be above or below $5.70 by Dec 31, 2026?. This contract trades at 10¢ on Kalshi, closing December 31, 2026. The market has experienced dramatic price collapse over seven days (from 31¢ to 10¢), now pricing only a 25% probability of gas exceeding $5.70 by end-2026, yet the asymmetric implied yields (1270% for Yes vs.
Analysis
The market has experienced dramatic price collapse over seven days (from 31¢ to 10¢), now pricing only a 25% probability of gas exceeding $5.70 by end-2026, yet the asymmetric implied yields (1270% for Yes vs. 15.7% for No) suggest extreme mispricing or thin liquidity concerns given the minimal $633 open interest and zero 24-hour volume. The high cliff risk index of 9 combined with the 4¢ spread indicates potential volatility around resolution, though with 259 days remaining, traders appear heavily skeptical that Florida gas will sustain above $5.70—a level roughly 50% above current typical prices—making this a bearish bet on energy inflation.
Resolution rules
If average regular gas prices for Florida are strictly greater than $5.70 by Dec 31, 2026 according to AAA, the market resolves to Yes.
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Regime
Trade
sf trade KXAAAGASMAXFL-26DEC31-5.70 yes 100